Will Home Prices Drop in 2026 in the East Valley? Here’s the Real Outlook for Gilbert, Mesa, and Chandler

Every week homeowners ask if 2026 will finally bring a price drop. Headlines hint at cooling. Predictions feel mixed. The truth is simpler and more local.

Prices in the East Valley aren’t showing signs of a meaningful decline.
Inventory remains tight, migration is steady, and demand from retirees continues to outpace supply in key neighborhoods like Sun Lakes, Sunland Springs, Encore, and Trilogy.

Here’s the snapshot that actually matters.

Why Prices Aren’t Dropping

Inventory is still low.
Even with slight increases, sellers aren’t listing fast enough to meet retiring buyers moving in from CA, WA, OR, and the Midwest.

The 55 plus market is driving stability.
Single level homes, updated kitchens, low maintenance yards, and gated communities are in high demand and short supply.

New builds aren’t keeping up.
Builders continue prioritizing two story plans. The most requested home type in the East Valley is still the hardest to find.

Higher rates didn’t push prices down.
Buyers slowed, but sellers simply stayed put. With fewer listings, pricing held strong.

What to Expect in 2026

Economists expect flat to modest appreciation rather than a decline. Not dramatic, but steady.

Here’s the likely scenario:

• Gilbert and Chandler continue to outperform due to jobs, schools, and lifestyle.
• Mesa and Queen Creek hold stable with slow, steady movement.
• 55 plus communities remain competitive because supply is limited.
• Updated or move in ready homes continue selling quickly and at premium values.

This market rewards well maintained homes and realistic pricing, not waiting for a crash.

Should Sellers Move Now?

Move now if:
• You want to downsize while demand for single level homes is high.
• You’d like to capture strong 2025 equity before conditions shift.
• You’re relocating or moving into a 55 plus community with tight inventory.

Waiting is fine if:
• You’re prepping the home or not emotionally ready.
• Your next community has good availability.
• You plan to make updates that will raise your value.

Most seniors who wait eventually ask the same question:
Why didn’t we do this sooner?

What This Means for Buyers

Don’t bank on price drops. Bank on strategy.
The best opportunities right now involve negotiating credits, rate buydowns, and timing the right neighborhood.

Great homes still move quickly. Average homes sit longer.
This creates leverage for buyers who stay realistic and decisive.

Your Personalized 2026 Market Plan

Every neighborhood behaves differently. Every 55 plus community follows its own pace.
A custom analysis always beats the news cycle.

I provide a complimentary home value and equity review designed for East Valley sellers, retirees, and downsizers. It outlines:

• your current equity position,
• what your neighborhood is projected to do,
• buyer demand for your home type,
• and what downsizing, relocating, or staying put would look like.

Call 

If you want clarity on what your home will be worth in 2026, reach out for your personalized review.

Kim Carlson
Keller Williams Integrity First Realty
480 993 9384
www.nowsellingazhomes.com